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Weekly Market Analysis from 26th May 2025
BY TIO Staff
|May 26, 2025This week’s major market moving events will primarily be focused on data that could potentially affect the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD. The week includes a potential interest rate reduction by the RBNZ, inflation, GDP and employment data.
Continue reading to learn more.
This week's major market moving events
Wednesday, 28th May
The Australian CPI (Consumer Price Index) year-over-year is forecasted to decrease slightly from 2.40% to 2.30%. This suggests a continuation of the RBA’s objective to lower inflation to their 2-3% target. Shortly after, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to reduce the Official Cash Rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, which could provide significant volatility for NZD traders. This is a crucial day for AUD and NZD, as these events will provide significant insights into the economic developments for the region.
Later in the day, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be scrutinized for clues about future Fed monetary policy.
Thursday, 29th May
Prelim GDP q/q from the U.S. is forecasted to remain the same as the previous figure at -0.30%. Any significant deviation from this forecast could impact USD. A better-than-expected GDP might strengthen the USD, while a worse outcome could weaken it. At the same time, Unemployment Claims are expected at 229K, compared to the previous figure of 227K. A higher-than-expected number of claims could suggest a weakening labor market, potentially putting additional pressure on the USD.
Later in the day, Bank of England (BOE) governor Bailey speaks, and his comments can provide insights into the BOE's monetary policy stance and affect the GBP.
Friday, 30th May
The week rounds up with the German Prelim CPI m/m, which is forecasted to reduce to 0.10% from 0.40%. Later in the day, Canadian GDP m/m is expected to rise to 0.20%, compared to the previous figure of -0.20%. A positive GDP reading might boost the CAD, while a negative reading could potentially weaken it.
Finally, the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m is forecasted to rise to 0.10%, up from 0.00%. Core PCE is a key inflation indicator in the U.S. and higher-than-expected data may weaken the USD.
Stay informed with our economic calendar
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
All Times are in GMT+3
Wednesday 28th May
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 4:30AM | AUD | CPI y/y |
| 5:00AM | NZD | Official Cash Rate |
| 5:00AM | NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement |
| 5:00AM | NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement |
| 6:00AM | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference |
| 9:00PM | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes |
Thursday 29th May
| 3:30PM | USD | Prelim GDP q/q |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
| 10:00PM | GBP | BoE Gov Bailey Speaks |
Friday 30th May
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | CAD | GDP m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m |
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
NZD/USD
If the price remains above the pivot at 0.5990, the currency pair could rise towards the 0.6062 and 0.6081 resistance levels. Conversely, a move below 0.5990 could see the pair decline to the support levels at 0.5958 and 0.5939. The RSI is around the 70 level, and could potentially be signaling that the market is overbought.
USD/CAD
If the price remains below the pivot at 1.3750, the currency pair could fall towards the 1.3670 and 1.3640 support levels. Conversely, a move above 1.3750 could see the pair rise to the resistance levels at 1.3790 and 1.3830. The RSI is around the 30 level, and could potentially be signaling that the market is oversold.
AUD/NZD
If the price remains below the pivot at 1.0847, the currency pair could fall towards the 1.0805 and 1.0793 support levels. Conversely, a move above 1.0847 could see the pair rise to the resistance levels at 1.0867 and 1.0878. The RSI is around the 35 level, and could potentially be signaling that the market is near oversold.
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
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