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Market Analysis for 14th July 2025
BY TIO Staff
|July 14, 2025During the course of last week, global markets exhibited a blend of cautious optimism and risk management due to escalating trade tensions and mixed economic signals. U.S. indices remained in elevated positions, the FTSE 100 broke into new record highs, and crude oil prices remained steady. In the forex market, major currency pairs reflected divergent trends influenced by central bank outlooks and risk sentiment.
Here’s a detailed look at what’s been driving the forex, indices, and commodities markets over the past week. So you can prepare for the trading opportunities ahead.
S&P 500 remains elevated
The S&P 500 closed near 6,258 last week, maintaining its position close to all-time highs after a steady rally that has marked one of the strongest recoveries in decades. The index gained 1.7% in the prior week and continues to be supported by robust corporate earnings, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
U.S. markets remain sensitive to trade policy developments, with the U.S. administration’s tariff announcements on multiple countries adding uncertainty. Price action indicated a strong bullish trend, however the RSI on the daily timeframe could be signaling the need for caution and the potential for short-term corrections.
FTSE 100 trades into record high
The FTSE 100 recorded a new all time high on Thursday, July 10th, marking a week of solid gains. The index advanced 1.2% last week, which was its third consecutive weekly rise, extending a broader uptrend that has seen the index climb nearly 10% year-to-date.
Energy majors like Shell and BP, along with mining giant Rio Tinto were key drivers for the UK stock market index. Financial stocks contributed positively too, supported by more stable UK-EU relations and speculation that cross-border operations may face less friction in the future.
USD showed signs of strengthen
The U.S. dollar strengthened last week primarily due to renewed trade tensions and evolving monetary policy signals that boosted risk-on sentiment. The Trump administration announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, along with 50% duties on copper and Brazilian goods, and signaled plans for broad tariffs of 15-20% on many trading partners.
Weekly jobless claims data also came in better than expected, showing that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. However, despite last week’s US Dollar strength, the broader trend for 2025 remains bearish and fear of economic recession remains elevated.
AUD was the strongest major currency
The RBA maintained its cash rate at 3.85% last week, which was better than analyst forecasts and what the markets were expecting. Its decision to hold rates steady for now provided a boost for the currency but the central bank has indicated the possibility of future rate cuts to support growth.
Market participants will now be watching upcoming Australian economic releases and the RBA’s future guidance, which will be key drivers for the AUD’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.
Silver (XAG/USD) makes new yearly high
Silver (XAG/USD) made a new multi-year high last week, reaching around $38.50 per ounce, marking its strongest level in over a decade. Price broke out above long-term resistance around $37.50 on Thursday, driven by a surge in “safe-haven” demand and renewed U.S. tariff announcements.
The commodity’s gains were supported but increased risk aversion across markets, and positive fundamentals, including supply concerns and rising industrial demand.
Upcoming catalysts
- US, UK and Canadian inflation data (CPI)
- US and Australian employment data
Stay informed with our economic calendar
This week's high impact economic events have the potential to cause considerable price movements, offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed with our economic calendar to access real-time data as these key events unfold. Our economic calendar is provided by Trading Central, with data from Morningstar Research Inc.
All Times are in GMT+3
Tuesday 15th July
| 3:30PM | CAD | CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Median CPI y/y |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y |
| 3:30PM | USD | Core CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | CPI y/y |
| 11:00PM | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
Wednesday 16th July
| 9:00AM | GBP | CPI y/y |
| 3:30PM | USD | Core PPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | PPI m/m |
Thursday 17th July
| 4:30AM | AUD | Employment Change |
| 4:30AM | AUD | Unemployment Rate |
| 3:30PM | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
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