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Market Analysis for 30th June 2025
BY TIO Staff
|June 30, 2025The past week was marked by significant rallies in US indices, a weaker US dollar, and heightened volatility in Crude Oil. Economic data painted a mixed picture, there was some easing in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve fueling risk appetite.
Here’s a detailed look at what’s been driving the forex, indices, and commodities markets over the past week. So you can prepare for the trading opportunities ahead.
EUR and GBP rally to new yearly highs
The past week was dominated by a weakening US dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXA) continuing its downward trend. This bearish momentum was driven by expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, ongoing US economic uncertainty, and growing concerns about stagflation.
The Euro and Great British Pound were the two strongest major currencies last week, making new yearly highs versus the US Dollar. While the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar were the two weakest, reflecting broad risk-on flows and shifting interest rate expectations.
S&P500 and Nasdaq rally to all time highs
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to new all-time highs last week, fueled by renewed risk-on sentiment and strong performance in technology stocks. The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran following a US-brokered ceasefire helped to calm geopolitical risks. Despite this, some analysts question the sustainability of the rally in equities given the underlying macroeconomic concerns.
Fed indicates three possible rate cuts
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of three rate cuts by the end of 2025, up from the two previously expected. This dovish tilt helped to support equities and added pressure to the US Dollar.
Potential recession risks in the US
US GDP q/q came in worse than expected at -0.5%, down from the forecasted 0.2%, which is raising concerns about potential recession risks. European PMIs were generally positive last week, outside of France, Canadian inflation ticked to the upside and Australian CPI fell to multi-year lows.
Oil plummets over 13%
The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran saw crude oil plummet over 13% last week. The downtrend established since the second half of 2022 remains intact, balancing strong seasonal demand against high OPEC+ production and inventories.
Upcoming catalysts
- US Non-Farm Payrolls
- US Average Hourly Earnings
The outlook for the coming week remains cautiously optimistic for indices, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD with risk-on sentiment likely to persist affecting the US Dollar.
Stay informed with our economic calendar
This week's high impact economic events have the potential to cause considerable price movements, offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed with our economic calendar to access real-time data as these key events unfold. Our economic calendar is provided by Trading Central, with data from Morningstar Research Inc.
All Times are in GMT+3
Tuesday 1st July
| 4:30PM | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
| 4:30PM | JPY | BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks |
| 4:30PM | USD | Fed Chair Powell |
| 5:00PM | USD | JOLTS Job Openings |
Wednesday 2nd July
| 3:15PM | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
Thursday 3rd July
| 9:30AM | CHF | CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Rate |
Saturday 5th July
| 6:45PM | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
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