Risk disclaimer: 80% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spreadbets with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and Spreadbets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Market Analysis for 7th July 2025
BY TIO Staff
|July 7, 2025The first week of July 2025 saw global markets navigate a cautious landscape shaped by tariff deadlines, central bank policy signals, and mixed macroeconomic data. While some US equities reached new all time highs, currency and commodity markets reflected both optimism and underlying uncertainty.
This report reviews last week’s major developments, and upcoming market catalysts, so you can prepare for the trading opportunities ahead.
June’s US jobs data surprised to the upside,
US non-farm payrolls rose to 147k, which saw 36k more jobs created than forecasted, lowering unemployment to 4.1%. The US Dollar index attempted a rebound on this strong jobs data but still remains in a 2025 downtrend below a key resistance level around 97.50.
The markets rotated into the USD, The British pound and Japanese Yen lost ground last week, meanwhile the euro, Australian and Canadian dollar all made gains. The EUR/USD is holding steady near yearly highs. GBP/USD hovered around 1.3600 level, amid UK political tensions and thin liquidity due to the US holiday on the 4th July.
The risk of renewed US tariff hikes has eased but remains a background concern, supporting cautious market sentiment. Over the past couple of weeks, markets have been fueled by a “risk-on” sentiment, and TIOmarkets clients with open positions in the majors shows the majority are long the USD.
US Indices extended gains
US indices showed resilience close to all time highs last week. The S&P 500 extended gains to the upside by approximately 0.83%, reaching new highs around the 6,289 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also made relatively significant gains last week, approaching new all times highs.
European indices, however, faced some pressure with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.02% and the IBEX 35 falling 1.48%, reflecting regional economic uncertainties and renewed concerns related to US tariff hikes. Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 flat and the Hang Seng down 0.64%
Precious metals remain consolidated
Gold consolidated closing the week around $3,338 per ounce, gaining about 2% for the week amid speculation over potential Fed rate cuts later in the year. Silver has also been relatively flat for about a month, however price rallied to the upside gaining around 2.7% last week.
Crude oil prices held steady around a significant long term pivot level, around the $65 per barrel mark.
Upcoming catalysts
- AUD Cash Rate
- NZD Official Cash rate
- FOMC minutes
Stay informed with our economic calendar
This week's high impact economic events have the potential to cause considerable price movements, offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed with our economic calendar to access real-time data as these key events unfold. Our economic calendar is provided by Trading Central, with data from Morningstar Research Inc.
All Times are in GMT+3
Tuesday 8th July
| 7:30AM | AUD | Cash Rate |
| 7:30AM | AUD | RBA Rate Statement |
| 8:30AM | AUD | RBA Press Conference |
Wednesday 9th July
| 5:00AM | NZD | Official Cash Rate |
| 5:00AM | NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement |
| 9:00PM | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes |
Thursday 10th July
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
| 8:15PM | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks |
Friday 11th July
| 9:00AM | GBP | GDP m/m |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Employment Change |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Unemployment Rate |
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
TIO Markets UK Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under company number 06592025 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN: 488900
Risk warning: CFDs and Spreadbets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spreadbets with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and Spreadbets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money
DISCLAIMER: TIO Markets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.
Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.
