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Weekly Market Analysis from 19th of May 2025
BY TIO Staff
|May 19, 2025This week’s major market moving events will provide traders with significant opportunities in major currencies. The USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD and CAD will be in focus.
This week's major market moving events
Tuesday, 20th May
The week starts on Tuesday with The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) set to announce its Interest Rate Decision. Analysts forecast a 25 basis point decrease from 4.10% to 3.85%. The outcome of this decision has the potential to significantly impact the Australian dollar. Later in the day, Canada will release its Inflation Rate, which is forecasted to rise from 2.30% to 2.50%. Traders will be watching for insights into Canada's current economic health.
Wednesday, 21st May
The Balance of Trade for Japan will be released during the Asian session. The forecast suggests a substantial decrease from ¥544.1B to ¥200.0B for April, potentially indicating significant changes in Japan's trade dynamics. Later in the day, the UK will report its Inflation Rate YoY. The forecast predicts an increase from 2.60% to 3.30%, a significant shift that could influence future Bank of England monetary policy decisions.
Thursday, 22nd May
The UK’s Manufacturing PMI for May will be in focus, which is forecasted to rise slightly from 45.4 to 46.. Simultaneously, the Services PMI Flash for May is expected, slightly increase from 49 to 49.3. These PMI’s will offer a snapshot of the UK's business activity. Later in the day, U.S. Existing Home Sales for April will be announced. The forecast is expected to decrease from the previous figure, indicating a potential slowdown in the U.S. housing market.
Friday, 23rd May
The week rounds up with data from Japan and the UK. Japan will release its Inflation Rate YoY, a slight increase is expected from 3.60% to 3.70%. While the UK will publish its Retail Sales MoM, which is forecasted to decrease from 0.40% to -0.20%, suggesting a potential contraction in retail spending.
Stay informed with our economic calendar
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
All Times are in GMT+3
Tuesday 20th May
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 7:30AM | AUD | Cash Rate |
| 7:30AM | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
| 7:30AM | AUD | RBA Rate Statement |
| 3:30PM | CAD | CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Median CPI y/y |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y |
Wednesday 21st May
| 9:00AM | GBP | CPI y/y |
Thursday 22nd May
| 10:15AM | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| 10:15AM | EUR | French Flash Services PMI |
| 10:30AM | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| 10:30AM | EUR | German Flash Services PMI |
| 11:30AM | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| 11:30AM | GBP | Flash Services PMI |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
| 4:45PM | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| 4:45PM | USD | Flash Services PMI |
| 5:00PM | USD | Existing Home Sales |
Friday 23rd May
| 9:00AM | GBP | Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Retail Sales m/m |
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
GBP/USD
If the price remains above the pivot at 1.3265, the currency pair could rise towards the 1.3330 and 1.3355 resistance levels. Conversely, a move below 1.3265 could see the pair decline to the support levels at 1.3245 and 1.3225. The RSI is giving mixed signals.
EUR/USD
If the price remains above the pivot at 1.1150, the currency pair could rise towards the 1.1245 and 1.1220 resistance levels. Conversely, a move below 1.1150 could extend the pair’s decline to the support levels at 1.1130 and 1.1110. The RSI is giving mixed signals.
USD/JPY
If the price remains below the pivot at 145.75, the pair could decline towards the support levels at 144.60 and 144.20. Conversely, a move above the 145.75 pivot level may see the currency pair rise towards 1.3345 and 1.3375.
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
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