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Analysis

stocks-and-precious-metals-soar-on-lower-cpi

July 13, 2023

Stocks and precious metals soar on lower CPI

Equity indices (DJ +0.36%, S&P 500 +0.84%, NAS +1.29%) rallied together with the major dollar counterparts as the lower inflation US numbers drove the bond yields and the dollar into a steep ...

low-cpi-outlook-lifts-stocks-weighs-on-usd

July 12, 2023

Low CPI outlook lifts stocks, weighs on USD

Equities rallied and the dollar kept on losing ground in yesterday’s trading. Today’s US CPI could in theory change these dynamics but in practice, the chances of this happening are pretty lo...

cooling-demand-to-lower-inflation

July 11, 2023

Cooling demand to lower inflation

Equity investors were cautious but based on index-level price action slightly optimistic yesterday. Investors wait for the US inflation data and the start of the earnings season. Industrials,...

wage-growth-spooked-equity-investors

July 10, 2023

Wage growth spooked equity investors

Even though the number of new jobs was confirmed well below expectations it was the wages that caused the stock markets to sell off, signaling equity investors are preparing for more rate hik...

nfp-only-209k-new-jobs

July 7, 2023

NFP: Only 209K new jobs!

The recent employment-related data suggested the labour market was still strong. However, this time the analyst consensus got it right: With only 209K new jobs added, the labour market could ...

analysts-expect-lower-jobs-growth

July 7, 2023

Analysts expect lower jobs growth

Even though analysts expect to see the jobs growth slowing down significantly from a month ago, the recent employment-related data suggests otherwise. The analyst consensus has pegged the num...

fomc-hints-at-rate-hikes

July 6, 2023

FOMC hints at rate hikes

The FOMC meeting minutes revealed yesterday that, several Federal Reserve policymakers hinted at potential rate hikes due to stronger-than-expected economic activity and no evidence of inflat...

be-ready-to-trade-the-fomc-minutes

July 5, 2023

Be ready to trade the FOMC Minutes

Caixin Services PMI declined but remained above the crucial 50 level. The services sector remains in expansion. Today’s main risk event is the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The Fed Fund Futures trade...

no-hike-from-the-rba

July 4, 2023

No hike from the RBA

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the rates unchanged. The market pricing prior to today's decision indicated a 63% probability of no change, so the decision didn’t come as a surprise. Addit...

low-pce-rallied-the-stock-markets

July 3, 2023

Low PCE rallied the stock markets

US equity markets had a bullish day on Friday as the May year-over-year PCE (3.85%) came in well below the previous reading of 4.344%. This marks the lowest reading since April 2021. S&P 500 ...

rising-german-core-cpi-fuels-worries

June 30, 2023

Rising German core CPI fuels worries

The June inflation for Germany rose to 6.4% on a year-on-year basis. This slightly exceeded market predictions of 6.3%. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and...

powell-more-restriction-coming

June 29, 2023

Powell: “More restriction coming”

The dollar traded higher and stocks remained mixed after Fed Chair Powell said the monetary policy hasn’t been restrictive that long, and that there is likely “more restriction coming.” Dow c...

stocks-rally-on-strong-economic-data

June 28, 2023

Stocks rally on strong economic data

Global equity markets rallied on strong economic data, with gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. Positive results in durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales p...

cad-inflation-fall-in-cpi-expected

June 27, 2023

CAD inflation: Fall in CPI expected

Today’s main risk event is the CAD inflation data release. The analyst consensus expectation is that the CPI will fall. A significant decline in the annual inflation rate is expected due to t...

wagner-mutiny-ends-but-questions-remain

June 26, 2023

Wagner mutiny ends but questions remain

The return of mercenaries from the Wagner group to their bases signalled the end of the armed mutiny in Russia. What at first seemed like a significant development that could significantly de...

boe-hikes-50-bp

June 23, 2023

BOE hikes 50 bp

Yesterday the Bank of England (BOE) took the markets by surprise with a 50 basis points rate adjustment, taking the bank rate to 5.00%. This was prompted by Wednesday’s higher-than-anticipate...

blackrock-etf-could-boost-bitcoin

June 22, 2023

BlackRock ETF could boost Bitcoin

Bitcoin nears the April high in anticipation of BlackRock's potential ETF approval by US regulators, which could significantly increase institutional investment in Bitcoin. Whether or not the...

nasdaq-shows-relative-strength

June 21, 2023

Nasdaq shows relative strength

Nasdaq has been a strong performer lately and continues to show relative strength as indices retrace after a strong performance over the last weeks. Equity markets have been trading lower sin...

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